Bitcoin bear markets

With Ether breaking out of the downtrend line yesterday, it looks like February 5, 2018, marked the low for the latest market correction. Now everybody wants to know how long it will take for the market to recover and reach new highs.

What can history teach us?

First, let’s compare the current crypto market correction with all the previous corrections in 2017.

Crypto market corrections in 2017 and 2018

The first correction in 2018 was double the size of the first decline in 2017. Quite scary, right? But what if we broaden our horizon a little bit? Since the majority of altcoins didn’t exist before 2017, let’s check Bitcoin bear markets (i.e., price drops of more than 20%) from the beginning of 2012.

Bitcoin bear markets
Coindesk, data as of 27 Feb 2018

The current correction marks the 3rd largest decline in Bitcoin prices in the course of last six years, but that’s nothing new for long-term crypto investors. They have seen worse, and the market always rebounded and reached new highs.

How long will it take for the crypto market to recoup the losses and reach new highs?

Let’s be honest: nobody knows the exact answer — no matter what different “experts” tell you. What we can do is make an educated guess. I wrote a blog about crypto market correction and recovery periods at the beginning of this month, and I predicted that the market would need at least two months to recover. What happened after this prediction? The market lost additional 22% of its value in the next three days and then gained 41% till yesterday. Here is the updated chart:

Crypto market correction and recovery periods

The prices are currently at roughly the same level as on the day I published the previous blog. If we presume that February 5, 2018, indeed marked the low for the latest market correction, we probably still need at least two months for the market to reach full recovery.

That being said, we believe that the market correction is ending and we are well positioned for the upcoming surge in prices.

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DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute a marketing message, an investment survey, an investment recommendation, or investment advice. The article was prepared exclusively for a better understanding of market dynamics.

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